“Keep It Simple Stupid.”
“It’s the economy, stupid.”
Are these pieces of wisdom mutually exclusive? Should business leaders care or pay attention to what is happening in politics?
Leaders have to focus, despite all the noise. But it’s incredibly tough to tell the distance between noise and signals.
Leaders always have to focus on building value; managing sustainability in all its forms – not least long-term economic viability; attracting, developing, and engaging talent, developing leadership; assessing and incorporating technologies and innovation; and managing risk … but this year there is so much more going on.
In addition to the Russian war in Ukraine, the mushrooming conflicts in the Middle East, and the shifting geopolitical sands, 2024 is a big political year. Every year is a big year in politics, but 2024 is a very big one.
49% of the world is voting, in 64 countries. Which are worth taking note of?
What are signals worth taking note of and what is noise?
Key items in the 2024 electoral year.
Make America Great Again, Again?
The leader of the free world is polarised like never before and political ideology and tensions have already caused a very un-civil war amongst the population. Trump has not been allowed to run in some states but with his opponents suspending their campaigns and his seemingly unstoppable campaign gaining strength you’d be a fool to bet against him becoming President again. A Trump Presidency may change lots of things domestically and internationally.
Dishy Rishy or Starry Starmer
Will the election make a difference to business and politics? This isn’t a Corbyn vs Truss election. There doesn’t appear (to the average voter) to be much of a difference between the two main parties – domestically and in foreign affairs whether it be the Middle East conflict, the Russia-Ukraine war, the EU, or the USA. Both parties would argue that this isn’t the case – but it’s what the voters think that matters. Labour will be keeping quiet on their policies until after the Spring Budget so the Conservatives don’t steal their ideas – differences will become more apparent after that and as the election looms.
Mother Russia
Commentators believe the upcoming Russian presidential elections will be neither free nor fair; with lead opposition leader Alexie Nalvany imprisoned during the actual elections, it is a fair assumption that former spymaster Vladimir Putin will win. The upcoming Belarusian parliamentary elections are in no way democratic. Despite having other parties running for parliament, Lukashenko is a firm independent with an iron grip on Russia’s little brother.
African National Congress Coalition
It is a certainty that the ruling ANC party of South Africa will lose a significant amount of seats but could retain power through a coalition. But who with? They might choose the pan-African Marxist Leninists EFF which is led by Malema who likes singing terrifying songs at rallies. Currently, they face a coalition of parties led by the DA, which could do well and significantly threaten their rule. The IFP (the KwaZuluNatal party) is a part of the coalition with the DA; however, if they were approached by the ANC to form a coalition in place of the EFF, they could act as watchdogs against corruption. The ANC will almost certainly lead a coalition but who with and what does that mean?
Why is South Africa important? Three reasons: firstly, with so much trade now going through the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Red Sea, there are significant questions about corruption and competency to be asked. There is a mind-blowing statistic that corruption has damaged GDP in South Africa more than Russia’s war on Ukraine has damaged Ukraine’s GDP. Secondly, South Africa has become prominent globally because of its newly assumed vocal role in the Israel-Palestine conflict. Thirdly, South Africa is a big player in the African Union and is one of the top 3 African economies.
Lithuania the gatekeeper
An EU and NATO member, Lithuania may seem small, and it is. I’ve spoken at an event in Vilnius – a stunning city full of spires and history. But the whole population of the country is less than 3 million. Still, it plays a pivotal role in geopolitics as the apparent leader of the Baltics and bastion against its neighbour Russia’s war in Ukraine. If Russia attempts further expansion, all eyes will fall on the Baltics, particularly Lithuania.
Finland
The Nordic Model member acts as another gatekeeper against Putin’s expansionism. Both a NATO and EU member, Finland is anxiously looking at Moscow to make a move. Anxiety has allowed far-right ideology to flourish which could be the undoing of the left-leaning liberal Scandinavian tiger status Finland has enjoyed so far.
China
The People’s Republic of China’s No. 1 annoyance, The Republic of China, also known as Taiwan, is one to watch this year. As is the reaction from China. Three major parties were vying for control, all with close polling result numbers: the left-leaning, progressive, and currently in power DPP; the formerly Big-Tent, now centre-right and historical founders of Taiwan, the Kuomintang; and the newly established populist (debated) Taiwan Peoples Party. The DPP retained control and the new President is pro-US and anti-China.
Sri Lanka
If opinion polls are to be believed, it is possible that Sri Lanka could become the world’s newest communist-aligned country in an age where Marx’s ideology has died out. After the riots against the Rajapaksa regime ravaged Colombo and then-President Rajapaksa had to flee the country, you’d think a period of calm and rebuilding would be welcomed. But democracy and the constitution mandate Presidential elections in 2024.
President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who stepped up when nobody wanted to take the poisoned chalice, has hardly had a chance to do anything and, according to the polls, won’t be in power after this election. It’s perhaps no surprise that ‘power to the people’ seems tantalising to those impatient for change. It’s also true that a country can be damaged incredibly fast; rebuilding a country takes much longer.
In 2003, I wrote then-Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s speech to the United Nations. https://peterbotting.co.uk/speech-writing-detained-secret-service/. Those were different times – hotel occupancy was at full capacity, inward investment was rising, business was good, prosperity was a thing, and peace talks were the order of the day. Alarming how much can change in such a short time. Politics matters.
India
Narendra Modi isn’t going anywhere. Nor is India. The country is growing fast, has a great sense of national pride and the population reveres education. The country has so much potential, a great work ethic, and huge ambitions. Managing those ambitions and helping create jobs will be one of the biggest challenges for India.
Georgia
Parliamentary elections will see both opposing parties having a pro-European, anti-Russian outlook. On 8 November 2023, the European Commission issued an official recommendation to grant candidate status to Georgia, confirmed on 14 December 2023.
The European Parliament
Will these elections be interesting or a damp squib? A generation of freshly enfranchised Gen Z voters will be able to vote for the first time. Russia’s war on Ukraine, financing for Ukraine, the Middle East conflict, and the prospect of a second Trump Presidency all loom large.
BRICS PLUS
The BRICs bloc previously included Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. It has doubled from 5 to 10, with Saudi Arabia joining the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Iran, and Ethiopia as new members. This is interesting considering the geopolitical state of the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and Iran, who are currently involved in a proxy cold war that takes place in various tension-filled Sunni/Shia countries such as Iraq and Yemen, will now have to share a platform of newfound unity.
To put this into perspective, the total population of all the BRICS members has gone from 3.24 billion people, which is over 40 percent of the world’s population, to 3.5 billion. Additionally, the combined economy is about $28.5 trillion – nearly 30% of the global economy. Not to mention, they now control over 44% of the global crude oil production.
Likewise, the hostility between Nile power players Egypt and Ethiopia will have to be reassessed as the economic empowerment of all countries that are member states is paramount. Despite its origin as an equal investment opportunity for the new economies of the founding nations, BRICS has evolved into the key rival to the politics and power moves of the G7 bloc, which begs the question, are we about to enter a second cold war?
Due to the current conflict in the Levant and with the Dead Sea closing, close attention must be paid to Egypt. What happens if Ethiopia goes ahead with its plans to build a damn containing its part of the Nile? It is estimated that 96 percent of the Egyptian population lives less than a kilometre from the Nile, providing millions of houses with a freshwater source. Should this natural way of life be disturbed, it could create one of the largest migration crises in history. Add to this the loss of a significant percent of Egyptian GDP from sea traffic which has been interrupted.
The question is, what do we call the group now? BRICSSUEIE seems like someone headbutted a keyboard. 40% of the global population, and not one person could’ve devised a catchy acronym?
What is noise and what’s a signal?