Rumour is that traditionally “safe” Conservative parliamentary seats will soon be selecting parliamentary candidates from the PAB comprehensive pass list.
Wannabe Conservative MPs with a comprehensive PAB pass are preparing for selections and the next election
These might be available because of boundary review changes, elderly MPs retiring or former Ministers leaving Parliament to go and earn some retirement money in the private sector.
What is a safe Conservative seat these days? When will selections start?
What defines a safe seat is usually historical results, incumbency and popularity of the party. Current polls, the boundary review changes and the recent “turbulence” in Westminster mean that this definition is out the window.
Many people won’t recognise the name of the constituency they live in, know the name of their current Member of Parliament, let alone the one they will have to consider under the new boundaries.
So everything is new: new candidates, new boundaries, new constituency names, new constituency associations, the recent Westminster upheaval and three Prime Ministers within a year, the Conservatives having been in parliament for 12 years, and Jeremy Corbyn no longer being the devil that the Conservatives can triangulate against.
Perhaps the country has an appetite for less news from Westminster – which would suit boring Keir Starmer. But that hasn’t stopped aspiring Conservative MPs from putting their names forward to pass the PAB (the Parliamentary Assessment Board), which qualifies them to apply to the new Associations of new constituencies Association is to become their new Parliamentary candidate in the next general election.
What is the PAB? What are the three main pass types?
Those parliamentary hopefuls who pass the Parliamentary Assessment Board end up with one of the three pass types: a comprehensive pass means that they can apply for any seats anywhere in England, Wales and Northern Ireland; a key pass is like having a driver’s license but with limitations; a development pass is like having a learner license – you’re not allowed to do much, but you have to show willing.
Rumour has it that the “safe seats” will start selecting candidates in March 2023 – these are only available to those candidates who have passed the PAB with a comprehensive pass.
The PAB is getting tougher and more professional – but could still be dramatically improved. The Conservative Party disapproves of coaching or assistance in advance of the PAB – but you wouldn’t learn to drive a car or fly a plane or be a professional sportsperson without a coach would you? https://peterbotting.co.uk/getting-selected-mp/
This is traditionally when the gloves come off, and the collegiate atmosphere amongst the candidates (which has normally been built on muttering about CCHQ) disappears when they all start competing against each other for what looks like a very small number of “safe Conservative seats”.
Which seats will wannabe Conservative MPs be fighting over?
This interactive map by Electoral Calculus will be being pored over by parliamentary hopefuls and electoral geeks. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/openseatmap.html?seats=2023
The number of declared retirees is low at the moment but will grow when they find jobs in the private sector. Boundary changes could mean competition between existing MPs. It will be no surprise that the competition will be fierce and former allies and friends will start competing and briefing against each other.