Why This Papal Election Matters More Than Ever
With the passing of Pope Francis on April 21, 2025, and his funeral today, the Catholic Church is preparing for a conclave to elect his successor. Leadership of most organisations and countries are for a limited time. The Pope is different. Most Popes see multiple country leaders come and go.
I am so grateful that my Southern Irish, but Protestant mother, put me in a Catholic school led by Catholic Brothers, because she didn’t want me growing up in a “whites only” school. The only time in six years that I saw the legendary Brother Pritchard unsettled, was when I and others told him the Pope John Paul I had died, after only 33 days. He did a U-turn and ran, cassock flying, to the Brothers’ House.
The conclave will commence after the nine-day mourning period, no earlier than May 5. Several cardinals are considered frontrunners (papabili) to become the next pope.
As the College of Cardinals gathered today, alongside a Who’s Who of world leaders, under the shadow of St. Peter’s, the world watches a Church at a crossroads. This conclave – the first in over a decade – comes at a time of deep fracture, not only within the Catholic fold, but also across the global political and moral landscape.
With over a billion adherents, the decision of who will don the white cassock is not merely an ecclesiastical matter; it is a geopolitical leadership event.
Should the cardinals elevate a conservative like Cardinal Robert Sarah, it would mark a reassertion of doctrinal authority and moral absolutism – resonating with traditionalists but potentially deepening the generational divide within the Church.
Alternatively, a progressive choice such as Cardinal Tagle or Cardinal Zuppi would signal a continuation of Pope Francis’s outward-facing, socially engaged vision, one that seeks to align Catholicism with the global conversations around justice, migration, climate, and inclusion. This conclave is not just about who leads – it’s about what kind of Church steps forward into a turbulent century.
The dynamics inside the Sistine Chapel will be as much about personal relationships and theological leanings as about geography and strategy. With 120 electors – cardinals under the age of 80 – representing every continent, this conclave embodies the global nature of Catholicism more than ever before.
The Church’s future may hinge on how this body balances the competing calls for unity and reform, tradition and transformation. African and Asian cardinals, once seen as peripheral, now hold considerable sway, reflecting the demographic shift of Catholic growth away from Europe.
Once seen as Pope Francis’s spiritual stronghold, Latin America may split between those seeking continuity and those desiring change. The European bloc remains influential, though increasingly aware of its diminishing numerical dominance.
Meanwhile, external pressures weigh heavily. War in Ukraine, political polarisation in the West, the rise of authoritarian populism, and global debates on gender, sexuality, and technology have all intensified the spotlight on the Church’s moral authority – or lack thereof.
Politically, the Pope’s funeral has brought together leaders – Presidents, Prime Ministers and Royalty – from around the world. Hopefully, he will smile at and approve of their conversations at this grandest of “grand gatherings.” And their actions afterwards.
Internally, whispers of institutional fatigue, scandal, and disaffection among young Catholics cannot be ignored. The next Pope must navigate an ancient and urgently contemporary faith. In this context, the conclave becomes a crucible not only for doctrine but for diplomacy, culture, and power.
The white smoke from the chimney above the Sistine Chapel will not just herald a new leader, a new Pontiff, but signal to the world whether the Catholic Church seeks to preserve, pivot, or perhaps do both at once. Anything seems possible in 2025.
